Population growth is key to economic development and this has policymakers fretting about the future of developing nations, as the window for poor countries to become rich is fast closing quickly. With the increase in the availability of contraception & the spread of education, fertility rates in developing nations are estimated to be less than what had been initially forecast – whereas the African continent, led by Nigeria, will be home to an expected additional 3 billion persons by 2050, India & China conversely will see their populations peak and decline at respectively 70% and 50% by the end of the century.

In the post COVID19-era, the trend will be a push towards national self-reliance, a decoupling of supply chains, and a diversification of economies away from an over-reliance on exports. In a world where trade is less open, developing nations will face headwinds as they struggle to seize the opportunities of manufacturing-led growth, in the same way that China had been able to grow its economy spectacularly and lift millions of its people out of poverty.

For countries like India & Brazil, declining populations means that this generation of working adults, as well as the children currently in school, are all there is to lift the nation into prosperity.

Without the infrastructure such as national healthcare, welfare and education put into place now, developing countries run the risk of indefinite stagnation; the ticking time bomb of an increasingly greying population might mean that they will simply never become rich.

One way to mitigate this factor is to facilitate the intake of migrant workers to replenish the working age population. By this account, the US does then possess one unique factor on a scale unparalleled by any other nations on Earth – if they continue their policy of welcoming migrants to their shores, then, by the end of this century, they stand a good chance of holding on to their position as the world’s top ranked economy, as well as its most innovative.